flexagon | Unsustainability

In general I tend to be pretty upbeat about the future (and why not?), but this is the sort of thing that really makes me stop and blink:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/16/news/economy/nrf_outlook/index.htm

The NRF [National Retail Federation] expects retail sales, excluding autos, gasoline and restaurants, will increase 4.7 percent from last year, much softer than last year's 6.1 percent gain.

That's a whole lot of gaining. It's interesting that our economy is based on this sort of thing... just to have an okay year, our retail sales have to grow by 4.7 percent annually. An assumption based on either ever-increasing wealth per person, or an ever-growing population, or both. Based on the squeaking I've seen on the news lately about declining birth rates in most first-world countries (and hey, we just brushed on this topic a couple of posts ago), I'd say it's at least in part the latter. But the earth only has a certain carrying capacity, whatever that might be, so we've always known that the population was going to level off sometime, regardless of people's choices about reproduction. Where is our plan for the soft landing when that flattening happens? Why are all our economic models based on biggering and biggering and biggering and biggering (turning more Truffula Trees into Thneeds, which everyone, everyone, everyone needs)? It seems pretty clear that some of the conditions we're in won't persist. The level of wealth in the world may continue to rise indefinitely, sure, but population will level off someday, and as the 3rd world countries slowly catch up to the 1st we will eventually run out of countries willing to host sweatshops. And these are good things. So, soft landings, anyone...? Anyone?

I feel weird making this post, because I'm by no means a poster child for sustainable anything. I use my share of fossil fuel, I don't raise my own food or even buy very much of it locally, etc. And yet I am not seeing what stands between us and a more steady-state economy in which "same as last year" is considered perfectly healthy.

I need to study economics more. :(

As for this:

American consumers for the past several years have proven to be extremely resilient to economic headwinds, and they've also been spending more than they earn. The savings rate has plummeted to an all-time low and is now in negative territory.

I can only squeak in dismay myself. Of course, the proportionally higher number of retirees in the country could be driving the savings number down quite legitimately... so maybe I just wish they'd break down their numbers a bit more. Sigh. This sure sounds scary though.